Bernstein: Betting On Bears' Offense To Improve?

August 30, 2018 - 2:34 pm

(670 The Score) Two things are usually true about preseason estimates from the sportsbooks regarding the Bears. First, they're designed not necessarily to predict the future but to generate an equal amount of money wagered on either side of a given line. They can be a guide to objective expectation but aren't meant to be a true assessment of probability.

Second, they generally rein in whatever runaway optimism is generated by training camp and pretend football games.

Here we have Bovada's over/under numbers for some individual Bears on the offense, knowing full well that the real gamble on such bets is health, more specifically the avoidance of the kind of traumatic injury that renders any wager moot or all but cashes it in if one believes that their recent history is indicative of future performance.

Mitchell Trubisky: 3,500 yards passing, 19 touchdowns

Jordan Howard: 1,200 yards rushing, 8.5 TDs

Tarik Cohen: 775 yards combined rushing/receiving, 4.5 TDs

Allen Robinson: 950 yards receiving, 6 TDs

Trey Burton: 600 yards receiving, 6 TDs

The excitement over the signing of coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich and the acquisitions of Robinson, Burton and Taylor Gabriel to accelerate the growth of Trubisky has allowed some of us to imagine a Rams-like leap for the Bears.

If that's going to occur, every single one of these props needs to hit the over. The odds of that happening aren't good, steep enough that whatever one could get on some kind of parlay would be a crazy long shot the house would love you to make.

Dan Bernstein is a co-host of 670 The Score’s Bernstein & McKnight Show in middays. You can follow him on Twitter @dan_bernstein.